Predicting COVID-19 confirmed cases in New York and DKI Jakarta by nonlinear fitting of a Bose-Einstein energy distribution and its implications on social restrictions.

OBJECTIVE: Global society pays huge economic toll and live loss due to COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) pandemic. In order to have a better management of this pandemic, many institutions develop their own models to predict number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and mortalities. These models, however, are shown to be unreliable and need to be revised on a daily basis. METHODS: Here, we develop a Bose-Einstein (BE)-based statistical model to predict daily COVID-19 cases up to 14 days in advance. This fat-tailed model is chosen based on three reasons. First, it contains a peak and decaying phase. Second, it also has both accelerated and decelerated phases which are similarly observed in an epidemic curve. Third, the shape of both the BE energy distribution and the epidemic curve is controlled by a set of parameters. The BE model daily predictions are then verified against simulated data and confirmed COVID-19 daily cases from two epidemic centres, i.e. New York and DKI Jakarta. RESULT: Over- predictions occur at the earlier stage of the epidemic for all data sets. Models parameters for both simulated and New York data converge to a certain value only at the latest stage of the epidemic progress. At this stage, model's skill is high for both simulated and New York data, i.e. the predictability is greater than 80% with decreasing RMSE. On the other hand, at that stage, the DKI's model's predictability is still fluctuating with increasing RMSE. CONCLUSION: This implies that New York could leave the stay-at-home order, but DKI Jakarta should continue its large-scale social restriction order. There remains a great challenge in predicting the full course of an epidemic using small data collected during the earlier phase of the epidemic.

Coronavirus: does its activation of archetypes of evil cause added psychological suffering?

Fear and grief caused by the pandemic have produced a powerful unconscious narrative in the collective psyche that the coronavirus is driven by an innately evil, and possibly divine, force. The resulting archetypal dimension of fear causes an extra layer of psychological suffering in individuals. This paper discusses how and why this narrative was created and why it is so compelling by looking at 1) the myth-making nature of the human psyche, 2) the psychodynamics of fear that drive the narrative, 3) the properties of the coronavirus and the pandemic that activate negative poles of some archetypes, in particular, archetypes of evil, and 4) asking how analytical psychology can help ease psychological suffering caused by these negative narratives, where one possibility is to invoke the transcendent function. The author's personal experiences as both biochemist and analytical psychologist elucidate how the transcendent function can promote healing.

La peur et la douleur causées par la pandémie ont produit un puissant récit inconscient dans la psyché collective, à savoir que le coronavirus est dirigé par une force intrinsèquement maléfique ou éventuellement divine. La dimension archétypale de peur qui en résulte produit une couche supplémentaire de douleur psychologique chez les individus. Cet article étudie comment et pourquoi ce récit est créé et pourquoi il est si convaincant. L'article procède en examinant 1) la nature de la psyché humaine qui tend à fabriquer des mythes, 2) les dynamiques psychanalytiques de la peur qui motivent le récit, 3) les propriétés du coronavirus et de la pandémie qui activent les pôles négatifs de certains archétypes, et en particulier l'archétype du mal, et 4) comment la psychologie analytique peut aider à soulager la douleur psychologique produite par ces récits négatifs. Une possibilité est d'invoquer la fonction transcendante. Les expériences personnelles de l'auteur à la fois en tant que biochimiste et en tant que psychologue analytique éclairent comment la fonction transcendante peut promouvoir la guérison.

El miedo y el dolor causado por la pandemia han producido una poderosa narrativa inconsciente en la psique colectiva, significando que el coronavirus es producido por una fuerza divina, innata del mal. La resultante dimensión arquetípica del miedo causa un estrato extra de sufrimiento psicológico en los individuos. El presente trabajo examina cómo y porqué ha sido creada esta narrativa y porqué resulta tan atractiva, prestando atención a: 1) la naturaleza creadora de mitos de la psique humana, 2) los psico-dinamismos del miedo que impulsan dicha narrativa, 3) las propiedades del coronavirus y de la pandemia que activan los polos negativos de ciertos arquetipos, en particular arquetipos del mal, y 4) pregunta cómo la psicología analítica puede ayudar a aliviar el sufrimiento psicológico causado por estas narrativas negativas, donde una posibilidad es invocar la función trascendente. Las experiencias personales de la autora como bioquímica y psicóloga analítica elucidan como la función trascendente puede promover la curación.